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Obama 14, Libya 10, Virginia 7, Cia 7, Pennsylvania 6, Ohio 4, Barack Obama 4, Us 4, Washington 4, Benghazi 4, Florida 4, Suffolk 3, Wisconsin 3, Scott 3, Carl Rove 3, Chris Matthews 3, Romney 3, Morris 3, Pakistan 3, Colorado 3,
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  FOX News    The O Reilly Factor    News/Business.  (2012)  (CC)  

    October 24, 2012
    4:00 - 5:00am EDT  

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the third. >> i have no idea what you said. >> laughs in irk c land. in kirkland, washington. >> not kirkland, ontario? >> no. there goes my career. tonight. >> governor, the problem is is that on a whole range of issues, you have been all over the map. >> bill: president obama once again verbally attacking mitt romney during the final debate. but the governor laid back. >> attacking me is not an agenda. attacking me is not talking about how we're going to deal with the challenges that exist in the middle east. >> >> bill: so who won and who lost? krauthammer, rove, morris, and i will analyze. >> more aggressive moderation? >> no. i want answers to the questions. >> bill: this morning on cbs there was a much livelier debate than the one we saw last night. we will show you what happened. >> so you didn't learn anything because i didn't learn anything.
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>> caution, you where to enter the no spin zone, the factor begins right now. hi i'm bill o'reilly, thanks for watching us tonight. who won the final debate? that is the subject of this evening's talking points memo. nobody won but we the american people lost that's because the debate was boring. same old stuff over and over. and where were the pointed questions by moderator bob schieffer? i mean, where was the libya stuff? the pakistan stuff? all the questions were general. which allowed both candidates to recite their talking points. this morning on cbs, i laid out why the debates are not serving the public as well as they should be. >> all three of the debate moderators will not press the issue like you do on 60 minutes. >> you want to see a more aggression moderation? >> no.
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i want answers to the questions. if you are going to say we have to be pakistan's friend as governor romney did, then you are going to explain how you get there when pakistan is actively killing u.s. soldiers. not just say well, we have to be their friend. well, how are you going to do that? when you have got a scientist in prison for helping us get usama bin laden. those questions aren't asked. >> the moderator is trying to get something happening here. he is trying to get the candidates to engage each other. it seems that the criticism you are making goes to governor romney not to anyone else because the moderate the goal here is to get them engage each other. >> bill: can i ask you a question. >> okay. >> did you learn one thing during that debate last night? one. >> i learned that perhaps governor romney believes he is ahead and, therefore, he took an approach not to be as confrontational as some expected him to be. >> bill: that's a perception on your part, correct? >> that's correct. >> bill: you didn't learn anything because i didn't learn anything. i didn't learn one thing.
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>> no. there was nothing there that they said about those issues that i did not know or have not engaged on this program and others. >> bill: why are we wasting 90 minutes of the american public's time if we're not learning anything? >> i mean, i think they probably learned something about the two candidates by watching. even though it might not have been a specific point on a specific issue. there is something about demeanor. there is something about temperament. there is something about how they handled themselves under the glare of that. >> bill: let's let dr. phil interview. >> oh, no, stop that. it's not dr. phil. >> bill: the key question is why did governor romney avoid asking president obama about the libyan situation. i hope i get to ask the governor that as we are seeking an interview with him and also president obama. my guess is that mr. romney wanted to appear benign in the debate in order to court single women voters. polls say romney is running behind with them. and many ladies do not like confrontation. so the governor might have decided to take a softer approach last night knowing the president would be aggressive, which he was.
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the governor hoping that women would respond positively to him. might work. my ask the legal ladies later on. cnn and cbs snap polls say he won the debate. but what exactly did he win? the president looked peevish, word of the day. foreign knowledge not more than the governor's. they are similar. in the end the third debate was tedious, nothing more. that's the memo. now for the top story tonight. analysis with a heavy hitting lineup, morris, road and krauthammer, charles first up for washington. so where am i going wrong here? >> if you want information did you to the encyclopedia britannica get instructional video on yoga or look up their
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web site. the reason for the debate is to put the two men together to see how they interact and to get some idea of what you would otherwise never know how are they going to act when they are in a room with vladimir or with the mullahs or negotiating with anybody else? the point is that what you are asking for 500 hours every year the sunday morning inquisition which is a good idea. you lock the candidate in with a person who asks questions. a journalist. you extract answers. you don't let him dance around or give you talking points. but what that would do is you would have twin sessions, one with each of the candidates duling banjos. that's not what we want. >> bill: i don't understand why you are supporting this system number two a waste of time. because all the candidates do by rhodes own admission and your own admission is spout talking points. that's all we do. we heard every single thing that was said last night way
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before. all right? over and over. so the moderator basically is setting them up for propaganda purposes. yeah, you can see a little body language, you can see maybe one guy getting a little annoyed from the ore guy. but so what? all the moderator has to do is make the questions, charles, sharply focused. for example, president obama, we still don't know a month and a half after four americans are dead in libya, all right, what happened. don't you feel a responsibility to tell the american people? that's a question, charles. it wasn't even close to being asked. >> there is empirical complete reputation of your position and that is debate number one. jim lehrer asked the question. he got out of way. we learned a lot in that debate. that was the single most important influential debate in the history of american debates going back 60 years. >> okay.
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>> you are my question that i just asked. what would have been wrong with posing that question in a foreign policy debate last night to get it rolling? what would have been wrong with that? >> because the role of the moderator is to play alex trebek. you ask the question, you get the hell out of the way. and you are a time keeper. >> bill: at least ask a peb trading question. >> it doesn't matter what you ask. what you do as a referee in basketball jump ball, you don't throw the ball at one of the teams and see if they are going to catch it or not. you jump it. and then it's the responsibility of the other candidate to question, to criticize, to attack, to undo and to say you never answered that question. that's not the role of the moderator. there is second reason why not. because there is no olympian objective moderator. they will always have a thumb on the scale whether intentionally or not. candy crowley was your kind of moderator and she tilted the second debate.
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>> bill: because she didn't know what she was talking about. >> but that's what you get when you do your system. >> bill: no there doesn't. put a confident moderator in there if you did the moderation on the debate or i did it, you wouldn't get that all right? so i'm saying that you are desperately wrong here. let's advance it a little bit more. >> okay. >> bill: so romney had an opportunity last night to pose the question i just posed. gee, you know, as an american, i'm concerned here. that i don't know a month and a half after this horrible thing what happened. and i'm getting conflicting reports from your state department, from the white house. can you explain to me, mr. president, what happened there? why wouldn't he ask that? >> romney's job is not to play journalist. his job is not to elicit information. his job is to get elected president of the united states. that's what he is up there for. that's what we're watching. look, i advocated in my column last week he should have hit
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obama on the libya and hit him all the way to chicago. i think that was curve ball. he decided for his own strategic reasons that all he had to do after he won the first debated, which i will remind you had a moderator who was only a cease-fire after the first sipher. presidential candidate plausiblably met the threshold to be president. once he did that, he had achieved the most important objective of all the debates. why shouldn't he? he is trying to win not trying to score points. >> okay. so i understand that tactic, and i said that in the talking points memo. it it might be the correct tactic. i feel that the measure public deserves more. they want a true leader. we need a true leader. we want to see people who basically want to right wrongs. the libya thing is wrong. it's wrong i just didn't see.
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i don't think the governor even cared about it. >> i don't understand you, bill. the purpose of a debate isn't to right wrongs. >> bill: it's to get elected? but i want to vote for the person who is going to right the wrongs. >> well, it's to put two men in an arena like teddy roosevelt would have add advocated. put them in the arena and see how they behave and then you choose. look, some debates like the first debate you can lose learn a lot. you will get a pummeling. in the second debate a little first acuffs and action. last you are going to get ambien, so what. >> bill: the drug ambien. >> that's what it was it was a national -- right there. >> bill: very lively as always. we appreciate your point of view. we have a brand new poll question. was romney not aggressive enough in the third
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whether he still thinks romney will win big. morris on deck.
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>> bill: impact segment tonight, we continue our analysis of last night's debate. joining us is dick morris. here comes black helicopters is a best seller. morris, the debate that charles and i had was about demeanor, okay? that mitt romney and chris wallace reporting that he made the decision, himself, to be a softer approach, not to challenge the president, not to be overly aggressive.
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was that the smart way to handle it? >> it was frustrating for me as it was for you. i sat there watching the tv and with my body language i wanted him to throw more punches. but i think the key thing was romney did not want to make news in this debate. he did not want to change the subject the last two weeks of the election. he has got the election now squarely focused on the economy. all the polls so show that by to to one he is more trusted on the economy. and, therefore, the news he wanted to make, the sparks he wanted to fly were about the economy. not about foreign policy. but he what would have been the deficit to make some news about libya the in sense that you confront the president who is obviously screwed this up oomg you make a competency issue. the reason romney is ahead on the economy is he he has been able to tell the american people that barack obama has
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screwed it up. now what you are doing and not only has he screwed up the economy, excuse me, he screwed this up. so it's a competency issue. what would have been wrong with that? >> because, you never know how it's going to play out. you never know how it's going to work. you never know what the ricochet is going to be. overwhelming facts on your side. >> so what he had facts on his side in the second debate and it didn't work out on libya. i think that he was very right for making this focus on the economy. but the broader picture, bill, what he did in this debate was he he made sure that women did not think he was a warmonger. >> bill: now you are agreeing with me. >> the worry is that he was bush 43, that he was a cowboy. he proved to them he wasn't. that's one. number two, he led obama be an obnoxious as he was going to be. right now his favorability is higher than obamas and it just got much higher. swas a very skillful debate on romney's part.
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>> i'm glad you said that because it reinforces my belief that a lot of what the governor did last night was directed toward single women and tried to convince them to vote for him. >> yep. >> however, the snap polls on cnn and cbs say that the majority of americans believe barack obama won that debate last night. >> that's irrelevant. most thought that romney won -- that obama won the second debate. and romney has moved up about 4 points in the national polls since the second debate was held. obviously romney won the debate. it's not a question of who wins the debate. it's a question of who wins the election and what image they are posting. romney had some very specific objectives here to separate himself from bush 43 to make obama seem outrageous and nasty and bidenesque in a sense. and not to make news and to get focused on the economy. he he did them all. >> okay. >> but, listen, you asked in the run-up to this do i think
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romney is still going to win. i stand exactly by what i have been saying to you for 8 months on this show. romney is going to win by four to eight points. is he going to get more than 300 electoral votes. and ohio is not going to decide the election. romney is going to carry ohio, but he is also going to carry pennsylvania, he is probably going to carry michigan. he has -- he is probably going to carry wisconsin. he is going to carry i think he will get somewhere between 300 and 350 electoral votes. >> bill: what happens if you are wrong. do we get you to sit out one of those tanks where people throw balls and dunk you? sit across the table from you at dinner and you have brag on what an idiot i was. >> bill: i will make you buy dinner for the whole borough of manhattan, not just me. you are really putting yourself out on a limb when everybody else is saying it's going to be close. including the two pollsters
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coming up behind you. >> remember all the fights you and i have had about pennsylvania. pennsylvania is the new ohio. same number of electoral votes. four points ahead in pennsylvania. the point is ohio and all those other states have been with obama ads against romney. virgin territory like pennsylvania, wisconsin, minnesota and michigan have not been. >> bill: morris. >> those states are easier to win. >> bill: morris, i have got to take a commercial here. can you continue talking about pennsylvania as we go to the break. you are really out there, man. we will see. directly ahead the latest polling still shows momentum for romney. will that hold after last night? later is it legal on whether governor romney's softer approach will it win over independent women voters? right back with those reports.
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>> bill: campaign 2012 segment. polling begins at the end of the week because now the debates are done. today the daily rasmussen tracking poll has romney up 4 points over obama 50 to 46. suffolk poll says it's a tie 47, 47, that's a big rise for the governor. joining us from boston, director of the suffolk operation and scott rasmussen. scott, i mean, you just heard dick morris, i mean, he has got everything riding on this one. going to have to move to bolivia if he is wrong. i mean, is it possible that morris is right more than 300 electoral votes for mitt romney. >> you know, he says a 4 to 8 point national victory. our poll today showing mitt romney up by 4 points is the biggest advantage, other than convention bounces we have seen in months. mostly it's been a 2 point
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race. barack obama or mitt romney could still win the election and nobody is going to win by anything approaching 8 points. ohio does matter. ohio is an incredibly close state. and our latest numbers we show president obama still leading by one point in ohio. and that is well above where he should be performing in a close national race. it is the fire wall. >> bill: okay, when you say well above what he should be performing, you have to take into account the auto deal in ohio. it's a very specific, the president's policies toward the u.s. auto companies benefited a lot of workers in ohio. and. >> and governor romney has not handled that very well. >> well, in your opinion, scott. i'm not ticking up u. up for romney. that's not my job. arrest night new listened closely president obama misstated the governor's position on the auto situation and it wasn't fair and those of us who know what the truth
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is is said, you know what, we ought to knock this off. let's go to mr. logos in ohio because you agree with scott. you are pretty much saying it's a dead heat now. but a week ago, 10 days ago, the president had a big lead. so it looks like again momentum is shifting to romney in ohio. >> that's absolutely true. we have a 47, 47 split. we listed all the candidates that are certified on the ohio ballot. it's a tale of two calendars if you look at the early voters mitt romney trails barack obama by 13 among that small slice of early voters. but if you look at the people who are planning to vote or very likely to vote, it's just the opposite. mitt romney leads by 3. the net effect, 47, 47. >> okay. now, are you standing by -- you made news last week on this program by saying that your polling outfit pulled out of florida, virginia and north carolina because you guys had decided suffolk university that those states were going to go to mitt romney. are you standing by that
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tonight? >> we based that on what we saw in the data and the head-to-head numbers. that data hasn't changed. as a matter of fact it's gotten worse for barack obama. obviously polls are a snapshot in time. and if one of those three states were to spike up to 49, 49.5 we would revisit it. but as of now we are not. we are sticking by it and polling the other states we think that will matter more. >> bill: scott, is there any chance that barack obama will gain some momentum from last night's debate? >> there is always a chance. but i don't think much is going to change. i mean, what i saw last night was the performance of two candidates confirming what we're seeing in the polls. mitt romney looked like the guy in the lead. barack obama looked like the guy trying to shake up the race. i don't think he accomplished it. mitt romney was seen by six out of february who watched the debate as being a capable commander and chief. people who asked in terms of would they change their vote because of this debate, really showed no preference one way or the other. generally, what we have seen, since the first debate,
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nothing has changed in the national polling. it has been a narrow and consistent lead for mitt romney. he has been making up ground slowly in the swing states going from down a couple of points in our 11 state swing state track to up 5 points right now. >> all right. you subscribe to that mr. logos or do you see a little difference? >> absolutely. i think that if you look at the polling date that that we have done in the swing states and we ask the question who would be better on foreign policy, barack obama entered as the favorite in the prethird debate on foreign policy. the polls showed he was winning among likely voters 49, 42. that's what the margin ended up being. so the net effect is really probably no movement or marginal movement. >> bill: all right. because the economy dominates and that's what everybody is probably going to vote on anyway. >> it's all about the economy. >> bill: we're going to check in with these guys, we have got two weeks to go. we trust those -- these two
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guys. we trust them there are some polls that we do not trust. i'm not going to mention them now. it's not fair, after the election we will get into it pretty heavy. plenty more ahead as the factor moves along this evening. the election is about to get even crazier. we will show you something that happened last night which will prove. that is it legal on whether women voters will respond to mitt romney's nice guy approach. we hope you stay tuned to those reports.
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craziness in the presidential election. last night before the debate something very strange happened on national tv. a commentator was interviewing folks about who they will vote for. >> romney. >> doesn't cover up sandals in the middle east. >> what was the scandal that was covered up. >> benghazi. >> what was the scandal? nail it what was the scandal. >> he said it was video. >> it was about the video, read the newspaper. read the newspaper. everybody knows it's about the video. >> good grief. with us now monica crowley and alan colmes. everybody knows it's about the video. >> well, i think it was partly about the video. it may not be fully about the video. we have a cia report that was out on december 15th that said it was about the video. david kirkpatrick of the "new york times" talked to people on the ground said it was about the video. that was one of the components that it was about. >> bill: are you kidding me. >> no. i'm not kidding you. >> bill: did you not hear the sworn testimony in front of congress? >> how would you explain the cia report. >> bill: i don't have to
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explain anything. the president's national security advisor testified in front of congress that it was a terror act and had nothing to do with the video. and one day after the cia briefing report that the president read said the same thing are you kidding me. >> the cia said the video played a part of it. >> bill: on the 12th he was handed a document, the president, that he read that said it was an outright terror attack, and that's the consensus that everybody believes right now. >> bill: talking points prepared by the cia. >> bill: you have got a guy on national tv says it's all about the video and you are supporting that? hey, the "the washington post" reporter doesn't mean jack. >> talking points prepared by the cia on september 15th same day that rice. >> bill: read my lips, a "the washington post" report doesn't mean anything. sworn testimony in front of congress does. >> the cia reported september 15th that the video played a role in it. >> bill: colmes, have you really got to knock it off. >> i'm telling you that's what the cia has said.
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>> bill: what did you think about that? >> two things. first of all, chris matthews picking on a kid who doesn't even look like he is old enough to vote in this election. he should pick on someone his own size. secondly, he is repeating the administration's lies from about five weeks ago. >> bill: wait a minute, the administration doesn't say it's about the video. they are not saying that anymore. >> they did for two weeks. in other words, is he going back repeating lies from weeks ago. >> bill: this was last night. >> correct. that's what i'm saying. >> bill: barack obama is not going to say it was about the video anymore. >> that's what i'm saying. chris matthews is repeating the administration's lies from five or six weeks ago, bill. that's what makes this whole thing outrageous. >> bill: is not outrageous, it's bizarre. when i heard that last night my head snapped back, are you kidding me? you are the only person in the country dry that would defend that you are. you the only person -- what you saw right there, you are the only person who would defend that. >> me and chris matthews the only two people in the country. >> that's it or some of the other crew that works on that cable station one. sane people know it wasn't about the video.
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>> that was one of the elements according to the cia. >> it wasn't one of the elements. it had nothing to do with the benghazi attack. nothing. >> that is an opinion that is not made by the cia report. the talking points cia memo of september 15th. >> bill: every analyst now says that including hillary clinton the secretary of state. >> i'm telling it you what the cia said. i'm giving you their report. >> god almighty. all right. were you surprised that romney was soft last night? >> on the libya question? >> bill: yes. >> he was soft across the board. >> well, it was a tonal judgment. it was a tactical move to win the bigger strategic battle. >> bill: were you okay with that. >> at first i was very frustrated. i wanted him to nail obama to the wall on lies and deceit benghazi terror attack that got four americans dead. at the beginning when i watched it unfold i was a little shocked by that. then i realized there was a method to the madness here. first of all i agree with you on the women voters. i don't think that's the entire picture. i think what he he is trying
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to do is allow the lies and the coverup to speak for itself. >> bill: speak for itself. >> when you go look at ronald reagan's performance in his debate against jimmy carter when the american hostage were being held in iran. reagan soft pedaled that he said i don't want to put these americans lives at risk. i'm not going to criticize the president, let this stand. >> bill: their lives are already lost here. there is nothing in play here. >> i understand but what he was doing was allowing the scandal to speak for itself. >> bill: you also thought it was a good strategy? >> by denying obama manned at left the political weapon of trying to accuse romney of politicizing the buyer thing. >> did you think it was a good strategy. >> no. i think you are right what the strategy was. he flipped flopped again on his positions. he agreed with president obama on almost all of the foreign policy issues. >> bill: not all of them. >> different from the hawkish romney. >> bill: you thought it would have been better for romney to be more confrontational. >> absolutely. >> thank you very much. we appreciate it when we come
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right back, is it legal on women voters. they will decide the american election because more of them vote. what do they want? and then carl rove on what's likely to happen in the last two weeks of the campaign. carl has got his map
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as i said in the talking points memo i believe mitt romney's decision to go softer on barack obama was aimed at getting women to support him. the author of the new thriller darkness rising. am i right here. >> i hate to say it because you are right. i hate to generalize about all women. many women don't like confrontation especially in their personal 'lives. the question for the debate can you bring that in or look obnoxious. i don't want to see my president or presidential candidate trying to beat up on each other. they did that the second debate all that finger pointing. >> bill: when they were finger pointing. >> i don't like that. >> and circling each other like two sharks you at home were thinking what. >> makes me uncomfortable. it's not presidential. i don't want to see that i don't know if it's a woman, man thing. >> bill: it was two men doing it i don't know if that's because i'm a woman i don't like it or because i don't like confrontation. you say?
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>> i say that it doesn't come off as professional or presidential when you see two men sort of circling each other like a chicken fight in the backyard it's not becoming to the office or showing dignity of the debate. people are there to listen, to pay attention, to learn about the candidates and say who do i trust with my life and the lives of my children and family. >> bill: so you are both saying a couple of things. number one, i could never be elected president of the united states. i know women would never vote for me. i would carry the marine barracks in san diego and ocean side and that's about it it okay. isn't there a point where women want to know the truth of the situation. >> right. >> and so i would assume that most american women are upset that four americans were killed, murdered in benghazi, right? >> that was the frustrating part yesterday. sorry to cut you off now about that. women want people not to be obnoxious. we also want them to show strength.
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there is a way to do that just have three or four questions. boom, boom, boom. sit back. >> bill: could have softly asked those questions. the only thing that i would have liked to have seen is a little bit more. show more red meat about libya. i would have liked to have seen him. >> bill: but that's confrontational, gizelle. >> that -- guilfoyle. >> bill: i don't know where the line is so we had governor romney also pulling it back big time last night. all right? and he did it, i'm almost now entirely convinced to go for the single women who he is running behind on and he needs to win. >> he is closing the gap. because you think how president obama was at the first debate. >> did he accomplish that last night. >> i don't think so. >> yes. >> i don't think he moved the bar at all because he didn't. >> bill: his softer approach to you didn't work? >> i liked the softer approach but you can ask them questions in a softer way.
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>> he came off as a commander and chief to me. if i'm looking at those two member, behavior content of their tone one seemed to be presidential that i would trust my life with. >> bill: all right, the u.n., the united nations at the behest of left wing american groups is now going to it fan out across the country and monitor the u.s. elections and you say guilfoyle. >> i say this is metaling of i they take themselves very seriously. >> bill: look for voter fraud or suppression. >> members of terrorist countries that are amongst them. so that is what they are looking for. only looking for it with conservative groups that are going to voter intimidation. >> what does it mean conservative groups? they are going to polling plays, correct? >> they are going to polling places but that's who they're most concerned about. >> how do they know if they're conservative? how do they know? >> they want to see if somebody outside looks very conservative and scary.
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black panther. >> that is like no problem. >> what if the black panther beats them up. would that matter? >> is he going to get a pass. >> is that going to happen? >> almost happened last night. >> this is a farce, right? total farce. >> total farce. >> they have no authority. he they are going to write a nice little report after this is all done. >> i wasn't too confrontational tonight with you ladies? >> you were actually sort of soft. >> i can be fuzzy. >> warm? >> bill: carl rove warming up. talking about fuzzy. what will happen next in the presidential race? rove is next.
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>> bill: back ever the book segment tonight. we will book end our third debate analysis with a guy closely following every aspect of the race. here he is carl rove. okay, i want to advance the story you are rooting for romney to win. you are a republic partisan. what i saw last night is that romney could have put president obama away and did not. almost like a prize fighter, just didn't take him out because he avoided the libyan situation. do you agree with that? >> i don't. look, it's always easy to say it's easy to put him out, all it takes is one punch. but these debates are a lot more complicated than that. he has won the issue of libya. if you take a look at the president's ratings on the handling of foreign policy just before september 11th there was a national poll asking it and compare it to today, his ration have dropped dramatically and that's because events have driven his numbers down. romney didn't need to do much about it except what he did last night is to say you have
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mishandled. >> bill: why it have been unpresidential since you worked for a president to show concern that we don't know after all of this time. >> twice he said last night in his long explanation of what -- you know, here is how bad the region is and here are all the bad things he touched on. >> in libya four dead americans. >> he touched on it last night. and, look, the fact of the matter is he he has won that debate. is he going to continue to win that argument which is the american people are looking saying president obama doesn't seem to be on top of this at all. what the heck was he doing out there campaigning? >> bill: i think romney could have gotten that point across in a much more dramatic way than he did. all right. he played it safe and now you say going forward i think that debate last night was a watch. it's not going to matter in the polls. >> sure, that's right. >> you agree with me. >> historically the third debate unless you make a critical mistake does not change the ark of the narrative. the first debate establishes the arc of the narrative. by the third debate. >> bill: you are agreeing with
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me. >> yeah. >> bill: do you feel bad agreeing with me. >> i agree with you when you are right and disagree when you are wrong. >> bill: that's most of the time. >> you are overly sensitive about it. >> bill: let's get the rove map up there because this is what going forward in the next two weeks is really going to matter. now, you have basically romney at 169, obama at 184. this is electoral votes. 270 needed to win lean obama 53. lean romney 57. 95 toss-up. looking at this map, you think that president obama still has the advantage to win the election. i see it as romney now has the advantage. >> i'm with you. see, look, take a look at that map. virginia is -- we're doing a two week rolling average for our monday bret baier special on the electoral college. when you look at virginia, last week there were five polls, thursday, friday, saturday. romney won four of them. by next monday those 13 electoral votes in virginia i think are going to be pointed
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toward romney. we have tennessee which is light pink. that's. >> north carolina. it's really going to come down to ohio and one other state. today in colorado, romney leads. today in new hampshire romney leads. the race is dead even, my suspicion, by monday in ohio. and we have got a barn burner. >> bill: you are not even talking about florida, which i believe the governor is going to win. >> florida, the reason why i haven't been talking about it i think it's sweeping in the republic column same thing as virginia. five polls thursday through saturday of last week. >> bill: virginia, and the momentum in virginia and florida. this is fair and balanced is going -- the governor's way right now. we don't know about the third debate. the instinct is not doing very much. however, if president obama wins ohio then. it becomes problematic for the governor. right? he has to do an extraordinary amount of winning the -- >> you have to win colorado and wisconsin. or colorado, nevada, and new
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hampshire. why is nevada with the highest unemployment rate in the country still so stead fast for obama. big unions in las vegas. culinary union. >> bill: in clark county. >> clark county. very good. second thing is substantial hispanic population. >> that's what threw new mexico into the democratic precincts as well. the hispanic influx in there. what do you see as far as the hispanic american vote, how much is the president going to take of that? i think the president is going to get sightly bigger than he he got four years ago. interesting thing is it is going to flat line as percentage of the. >> fewer voters. flat line. is he counting on it being bigger as it has been for 30 some odd years. hispanic vote increasing since the 1980s. >> bill: real quick last question i say that mitt romney chose not to be
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aggressive in the foreign policy debate because he wanted to woo women to vote women for him. >> women and independents. he want'ed it to be presidential. he understood in the second debate president obama wanted it to be confrontational to draw him off of the podium and down into the mud. it sort of happened. he recognized it was better for him to appear to be the adult and let the president be the one overly objective. >> bill: you think it's right investigated. >> i think it was. olympic judge give points for being aggressive guy. the other way we look at it is on the basis of who won on substance and every indication that last night mitt romney narrowed the gap which is difficult to narrow on the issue of being commander and chief and came out looking like he was up there on stage with the president. >> bill: karl rove, everyone. factor tip of the day on texting. it's a warning for you. the tip 60 seconds away.
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>> bill: a warning about texting. but first, we have tremendous
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deals for you. if you become a premium member you get any one of my books free of charge. "killing kenedy" and "killing lincoln" number five after 55 weeks. that has never happened before in america. simply amazing. i thank you all that are supporting the books. now to the mail. from buenos aires.
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>> bill: i watched it here in new york city. i took notes, that is my job. sometimes it's very painful.
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